Mutumwa Mawere

There is no indication that he intends to vacate the free accommodation that he has enjoyed for 28 years irrespective of what the election results will be.

An argument has been advanced by ZANU-PF that any change of leadership will necessarily mean a negation of the principles of the national democratic revolution. Using this construction, a proposition is then made that if Morgan Tsvangirai became President of Zimbabwe the revolution will have been stolen.

In fact, it is President Mugabe's case that the results announced so far cannot represent a genuine expression of the will of the Zimbabwean people for it is not conceivable to him that a party with liberation credentials like ZANU-PF can ever be unseated by any other movement.

As the bizarre post-election drama unfolds it is reasonable to begin to ask who Mugabe is and what informs his thinking. We have all speculated about what kind of a person Mugabe is and may never get to know him.

What is clear is that he has managed to maintain his pre-liberation message and his team has largely remained intact notwithstanding the perilous state of the economy.

By all standards, any rational person would have deserted ZANU-PF but alas it appears that there is something that glues the party to its President.

It has been argued that corruption, human and property rights abuses have all combined to keep the party together. Some have even gone further to argue that the real reason President Mugabe does not support change is because of fear of retribution and possibly being joining former President Charles Taylor.

I do not believe that President Mugabe believes that he has a case to answer. In fact, his main case is that apart from the land issue which is presented in revolutionary terms, he has been an exemplary and principled leader.

It is also evident that President Mugabe does not recognise any black victims of his rule. Deep in his veins he believes that any misfortune that visits his opponents is deserved and he has nothing to apologise for the abuse of state power for in his psyche he holds the view that the revolution was really about seizing state power to allow only revolutionaries to engineer social and economic changes.

After 28 years in power, President Mugabe's colleagues in the party now pretty much know what he wants to hear. So when the parliamentary and senatorial results were announced, one can imagine what thoughts went into the minds of ZANU-PF loyalists and what kind of explanation they had to give to the President given his belief that he has served the republic with distinction and honour.

Although President Mugabe accepts the sovereignty of citizens, he will not accept that any result that places the country in the hands of lesser mortals necessarily reflects a genuine will of the people.

He must have accepted the logic presented to him at the politburo meeting after the elections that MDC with the support of imperialist forces had manipulated the election results hence the unprecedented decision to recount the votes and the incapacitation of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC).

Now that the recount has been completed and the results re-confirmed, President Mugabe is now definitely in a corner not only because for the first time even if he is to win the run off, he will face an opposition-led parliament with a speaker elected by the opposition.

Since 1987, President Mugabe has been ruling largely by decrees and it is inconceivable that he will adjust to a situation in which he has to consult and negotiate his way. What must be frightening President Mugabe is that with the loss of ZANU-PF's parliamentary majority, he has to swallow some of the bitter words he has spoken about Tsvangirai and his party?

Is President Mugabe capable of accepting a situation in which he is not totally in control? There is no evidence to suggest that President Mugabe is capable of rising above the bitter partisanship that has unfortunately helped define who he is.

I have no doubt that the run off will be held since it is highly probable that the Presidential results will confirm that no candidate received the minimum required votes. However, there is a dispute as to the actual results but if it is accepted that the participation of Simba Makoni had an impact on the outcome then it is conceivable that it may actually be true that a run off is the only viable option.

What seems to complicate the issue is that President Mugabe obviously having been privileged with the results has been using the state machinery to undermine Tsvangirai and intimidate the voters in anticipation of the run off. In pursuing this strategy, it is evident that a calculation has been made that Tsvangirai may well be too scared to participate in the run off in which case President Mugabe will be the sole beneficiary.

Will President Mugabe accept that he goes into the run off as an underdog? It appears that President Mugabe is prepared for this defining battle in which he will continue to make the case that only he can deliver the promise and protect the so-called gains of land reform and the anti-imperialist struggle.

President Mugabe is too old to change his ways and will continue to dwell on the past and refuse to look himself in the eye to see whether he is the right person to lead a dying and battered nation at this defining hour.

Tsvangirai must appreciate and understand the kind of person his competitor is. He is a complex human being who genuinely believes that the prospect of re-colonisation exists if a vanguard party like ZANU-PF were to become an opposition party.

Allegations have been made about Mugabe's rigging tactics but a case can legitimately be made that the election results confirm that, in fact, Mugabe may not be a good cheater but a good intimidator. If this is true, we need to acknowledge the positive aspect of Mugabe's often misunderstood personality and properly record his legacy for if we choose to be selective, he may turn out to be the monster that the world wants out of office.

The change agenda must be located in the global framework of the national democratic revolution and a case needs to be made even to President Mugabe like the British made to Ian Smith that it is not in the national interest that he, being the second choice, should not dare embarrass himself by going for run off in an election observed by third parties.

Even Tsvangirai must accept that the need for international observers may serve to infuriate Mugabe if without them an absurd outcome was delivered.

If anything, it is hoped that President Mbeki will convince President Mugabe about the urgency of vacating statehouse and government house to allow the country to finally heal and move forward.

Surely, if the MDC could in the face of a hostile environment produce an upset of the ruling party, it must be accepted that the change that Tsvangirai has been advocating has been accepted by the majority of Zimbabweans as the best way forward.

President Mugabe believes like many former liberation movements that he is destined to rule Zimbabwe and he alone knows what is best for the country. There is need to educate the President that in the final analysis people are smarter than what politicians may think.

The post-election experience should scare all democrats in Africa for without an independent judiciary and electoral commission the gains of independence are a mere illusion. The real revolution has to begin now and people must own and jealously guard their freedom.